Now Startups Are Using AI to Predict the Future

Many startups are using AI to guess what may happen in the future. Dan Schwarz, the co-founder of FutureSearch, believes that AI will change the way people make decisions. He said that by 2030, people may feel that the old way of making decisions was very outdated. AI can already predict future events as well as some of the best human predictors, known as “super-forecasters.” It can study large amounts of public and private data to make better predictions. People are also using AI to make money through prediction markets. Theo Summer, who started Preseen with Veniamin Veselovsky, used AI tools to turn $35 into $1.9 million in just seven months on Kalshi, an American prediction platform. Toby Shevlane, the co-founder of the forecasting startup Mantic, said that AI is already having some effect because some of their customers use it to help them make trading decisions.

In early September, two AI models took first and second place in the Metaculus Cup which is a competition that brings together top human and AI forecasters. Some other popular prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are also seeing more people use AI to make predictions. Veselovsky believes ordinary investors may soon find it harder to make money on these platforms because they cannot afford expensive AI tools. He warned that "they will soon just be dominated by AI forecasting systems," AI can now do more than predict events. It can also come up with its own questions about the future and estimate the chances of different outcomes, Shevlane said.

However, the growing use of AI also raises concerns. Veniamin Veselovsky, who is the CEO of the AI forecasting firm Preseen,  believes the technology can do good, but he is worried about how it could be used by powerful countries. He said, "I think that good can be derived from this," but added, "I'm also a little bit scared because, you know, maybe Russia or China has better systems. "

Source : Tech Insights and The Hindu

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